Modeling of HIV Transmission in Nasarawa State, Nigeria: An Analysis of Distribution of New Infections

The need to understand local HIV epidemics and linking the prevention and other interventions to evidences become very important for the success of HIV response. The objective of the study was to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections among adult population (15-49 yrs) and to identify the groups at highest risk of HIV infection in Nasarawa State Nigeria to inform HIV prevention programme planning and Implementation. The study was based on the Modes of HIV Transmission (MOT) incidence model recommended by the Joint United Nation’s Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS). Persons aged 15-49 years were divided into independent groups based on their risky behaviours. Demographic, epidemiological and behavioral data were obtained for each risk group from available survey reports/documents and inputed into the UNAID’s MOT Model spreadsheet.The model estimated that more than 45% of new infections would occur amongst persons who reported “low risk” sex. The Injecting Drug Users, Female Sex Workers (FSW) and Men having Sex with Men and their partners were estimated to contribute 20.7%. Persons reporting low risk sex practices, a sub-population that includes cohabiting or married sexual partners need to be targeted with appropriate HIV prevention interventions such as HIV Counselling and Testing, condom promotion, Interpersonal communications and other partner reduction strategies.